Steve John Owens, a radio producer, presenter and podcaster, explains why it really is clear to see that there is still the next for radio and radio advertising...
Last year, Claire Enders, founder of Enders Analysis, a research service that discusses media, entertainment and telecommunications in Europe, predicted that UK commercial radio could die out within the next 15 to 20 years. Enders put this prediction primarily into dwindling advertising revenues, she claimed that "revenues from classified, on the internet and search advertising all outstripped those from radio, understanding that advertising agencies were tuning out of your medium" (Tryhorn, 2009).
Since that day the debate has raged on, with countless authors and respected publications contending each party of the argument. To fully outline and discuss whether UK commercial radio will indeed meet its demise by 2031, it is firstly necessary to discuss how advertising income revenues stay at home the current economic climate, whether other forms of radio are impacting commercial radio and its overall relationship having a consumer audience.
Initially it is vital to highlight that Enders' assertion was made at a time when the UK occured in the frosty grip of recession, and several commercial radio stations, including Valleys Radio, Abbey FM and Virgin Radio Groove, were closed down permanently for that reason period of economic instability. A shareholder at Abbey FM, Robin Burgess stated at that time that "in the present economic climate and, especially, the effect the recession is having on media revenues, the directors saw no realistic prospect in the station getting into profit inside foreseeable future" (Goddard, 2009).
In spite of these difficulties, commercial radio stations have in the last few years begun to adapt and are consolidating assets in order to save their companies. We will look into the Global Radio owned Capital as one example. On the 3 January 2011 Capital FM launched through the UK, with the vast majority of programming to its Independent Local Radio stations broadcasting from the existing 95.8 Capital studios in Leicester Square, London. With local output compromising of just a breakfast show as well as a drive-time show, it is clear that networking the stations was high in Global Radio agenda.
In the 2009 Global Radio report Goddard (2009: 7) states that "with the commercial radio sector facing declining audiences and falling revenues, it is easy to presume that consolidation might help ensure its continued existence". With a lot of new players entering the market for example German media group Bauer and Points during the India group, who ended Many years of Virgin Radio and re-branded under Absolute, many experts check this out as the end of traditional radio as you may know it. Conversely others believe "that the radio industry is limbering up, getting ready to reassert itself as it has done so many times in the past when dealing with challenges from other media" (Fleming, 2010: 2).
Not like the Capital FM consolidation approach, Real Radio have appreciated that building a wider listener base brings increased revenue, albeit at the possible expense of localness. In response to this Tony Dowling, station director of Real Radio Wales, previously stated this year that listeners want "entertainment, music and knowledge that reflects and connects with their former lifestyle - they don't necessarily care whether or not it's being broadcast from down the road, the next town or 100 miles away" (BBC, 2011).
Having gone national throughout Wales in January 2011 the Real Radio network has grown its business substantially, inside the Q3 2011 Rajar figures the network "reported typically 21.61 million listening hours per week in the third quarter, up 3.4% as opposed to same period last year or more 1.7% quarter on quarter" (McCabe, 2011a), whilst boasting an impressive "average weekly reach of two.61 million, up 10.0% every year and 1.7% period on period" (McCabe, 2011a). The saying "speculate to accumulate" certainly rings true in cases like this.
To further discuss the reasons why Claire Enders found this radical prediction it is vital that we explore the evidence she'd at her disposal at the time and discover if that evidence still applies in 2012.
"In 1924... many consumers and broadcasters were resistant to over-the-air commercialism and claimed that radio must not be used to sell products. Then Secretary of Commerce Herbert Hoover, who later became president of the United States, claimed that radio programming must not be interrupted with senseless advertising." (Medoff and Kaye, 2011: 131)
How everything has changed since Herbert Hoover made those remarks almost 90 years back. In 2011, advertising is the sole opportunity that commercial radio has got to stay in business, whether that be web or on air advertising. Enders' key argument for that commercial radio sector's predicted decline on the next two decades came about mainly from diminishing revenues generated by these adverts. She stated that advertisers were expressing a disinterest in radio like a medium to show their commodities knowning that as a result the commercial radio sector was ceasing being "commercially viable" (Tryhorn, 2009).
However, studies have shown that radio is still an effective, if not the most effective, advertising medium as Katz (2010: 77) explains "another study... exposed customers to two radio ads or one TV + two radio ads... what you found was radio ads alone performed superior to either the single exposure to TV or newspapers (in terms of brand recall)". Therefore, it's clear to see that there is still another for radio and radio advertising.
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