Portugal, Currently Ranked 5th In World By FIFA, Are Generally Predicted To Win The Forthcoming European Football Championship, According To Property Research Via Jones Lang LaSalle.
Portugal, currently ranked 5th in world by FIFA, are predicted to win the forthcoming European football championship, based on property research from Jones Lang LaSalle. Despite finding myself Group B, the notorious "group of death" alongside Germany, netherlands and Denmark, analysis of European property metrics during past tournaments indicate Portugal includes a strong chance of performing well inside 2012 tournament, and may win the race the competition, with a narrow victory over Croatia inside the final.
Based on assorted property market fundamentals offering investment returns, rental values and vacancy rates, perennial underperformers England are anticipated to survive until the semi-finals, alongside Russia.
Surprisingly, reigning European and World Cup champions Spain and tournament specialists Germany, both fancied to win the tournament, are certainly not expected to survive past the group stage, and you will be eliminated by outsiders who possess different property fundamentals.
Home advantage can be not predicted to be helpful this year. Co-hosts Poland and Ukraine, the lowest-ranked teams inside competition according to FIFA at 65th and 50th respectively, are certainly not expected to survive the initial group stage.
Robert Stassen, Head of EMEA Capital Markets Research, Jones Lang LaSalle said:
"Whilst all eyes across the globe will be on the football superstars like Ronaldo, Rooney and Robben, a closer look at property fundamentals in each country reveals some interesting patterns in past tournament results. This means we can translate property performance and forecast that will perform on the pitch. It will be pure fantasy football however it could help those trying to predict the final results, and also demonstrates the importance to understand real estate performance."
Jones Lang LaSalle Euro 2012 predictions:
Group A - Historically, countries which may have higher yields across industrial and logistics buildings have performed better and survived to generate the knockout competition. With double digit prime yields for industrial property in Russia and increases in prime yields in Greece over the last 12 months, we expect Poland and also the Czech Republic will lose out at this stage.
Group B - During recent European Championship tournaments, countries with higher business building vacancy rates have topped the audience stages. Based on this trend with robust development pipelines and 'abnormal' amounts of leasing transactions, Portugal along with the Netherlands are expected to triumph over Denmark and Germany with vacancy rates of 12% and 17%, respectively in comparison with 10% in Denmark and 8% in Germany.
Group C - Looking back, countries with strong office capital values and rents, have performed best for the pitch. If this trend is maintained in 2012, Spain, currently surface of FIFA's world ranking would are not able to qualify from their group. Croatia would top the audience, with Italy taking second place despite recent match-fixing rumours circulating their national leagues and knocking out Ireland.
Group D - Interestingly, countries with weaker performance across retail property returns have performed well on the pitch. The sustained austerity impact across much of Europe has been squeezing consumers, impacting on retail performance. Sweden's positive consumer environment suggests they could lose out to England and France, where retail returns are forecast to become more subdued. Ukraine would also lose out to England and France.
Knock-out stage prediction
Quarter Finals: The 1st knock-out stage has previously been determined by industrial capital value growth. Countries with all the strongest growth have made it by way of the semi-finals. A growing industrial sector in Central & Eastern Europe sees Russia and Croatia knocking your Netherlands and France, who have more mature markets. Despite England's lacklustre forecast of 0% growth, this will be enough to pass through to the semis as Italy's industrial capital values decline. The match between Portugal and Greece is going to be tight, but Portugal are forecast to progress.
Semi Finals: Prime office rents are already the decider in this round during previous tournaments, with an increase of tenant favourable markets living through to the final stage. Deficiencies in supply has put pressure on rents in Central London, which suggests England with prime rents of over ?1,200 per sq m p.a., will miss to Portugal, where prime rents are one sixth, at ?200 per sq m p.a. While substantial rental growth outperformance in Moscow in 2011, indicates a Croatia final debut because they knock out Russia.
Final: In terms of Group D, based on past results, retail performance has indicated the overall winner. However, this time it's the nation with better performing high streets and more expensive prime rents which may have triumphed and become the ultimate champions. This suggests that the final will be a closely fought match as traditional retail prime rents in Croatia and Portugal are ?1,020 and ?1,080 per sq m each year, respectively. Portugal will therefore snatch victory in a close fought contest and go one superior to their runner-up position back in 2004.
Robert Stassen, Head of EMEA Capital Markets Research, Jones Lang LaSalle said:
"Despite a struggling economy with negative GDP growth forecast for the next few years, Portugal have a heritage of performing well in European tournaments. They reached the quarter finals in 2008, runners-up in 2004 and semi-finalists in 2000. We expect they will often go one better this time around.
It's interesting to see how the real-estate analysis generates some surprising results. Forecast poor performance from reigning European and world champions Spain and tournament specialists Germany, ranked 1st and 2nd by FIFA accordingly throws the form book out of the window. This goes to show, that the world of real estate, like football, really is a game of two halves."
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