The latest study from the National Academy of Sciences outlines grim possibilities on Earth for a worst-case scenario solar storm.
Damage to power grids other communications systems might be catastrophic, the scientists conclude, with effects resulting in a possible damaged governmental control of the situation.
The prediction relies partly on a major solar storm in 1859 that it caused telegraph wires to short out in the United States and Europe, igniting widespread fires.
It was perhaps the worst in the past 200 years, based on the new study, and with the advent of modern power grids and satellites, much more reaches risk.
A contemporary repetition of the [1859] event would cause significantly more extensive (and possibly catastrophic) social and economic disruptions, the researchers conclude.
When the sun is in the active phase of its 11-year cycle, it may possibly unleash powerful magnetic storms that disable satellites, threaten astronaut safety, and even disrupt communication systems on Earth.
The worst storms can knock out power grids by inducing currents that it melt transformers.
Modern power grids are so interconnected that a big space storm - the type expected to occur about once a century - could cause a cascade of failures with the intention of would sweep across the United States, cutting power to 130 million people or more in this country alone, the new report concludes.
Such widespread power outages, though expected that should be a rare possibility, would affect other vital systems.
Impacts can be felt on interdependent infrastructures with, for example, potable water distribution affected within several hours; perishable foods and medications lost in 12-24 hours; immediate or eventual lack of heating/air conditioning, sewage disposal, phone service, transportation, fuel resupply therefore on.
Outages could take months to fix, the researchers say. Banks might close, and trade with other countries might halt.
Emergency services could be strained, and command and control might be lost, write the researchers, led by Daniel Baker, director of the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics at the University of Colorado in Boulder.
Whether it is terrestrial catastrophes or extreme space weather incidents, the results might be devastating to modern societies with the purpose of depend in the myriad of ways on advanced technological systems, they said in a statement released with the report.
Stormy in the past, Solar storms have had significant effects in modern time:
- In 1989, the sun unleashed a tempest with the purpose of knocked out power to any or all of Quebec, Canada.
- A remarkable 2003 rampage included 10 major solar flares over a two-week period, knocking out two Earth-orbiting satellites and crippling an instrument aboard a Mars orbiter.
Obviously, the sun is Earth's life blood, say a director of the Heliophysics division at NASA. To mitigate possible public safety issues, it is vital that it we better understand extreme space weather events attributable to the sun's activity.
Space weather can create solar storm electromagnetic fields with the aim of induce extreme currents in wires, disrupting power lines, causing wide-spread blackouts and affecting communication cables with the intention of support the Internet. Severe space weather also produces solar energetic particles and the dislocation of the Earth's radiation belts, which sometimes damage satellites used for commercial communications, global positioning and weather forecasting.
The race is on for better forecasting abilities, as the next peak in solar activity is predicted to come around 2012.
While the sun is in a lull now, activity can flare up at any moment and severe space weather - how severe, nobody knows - will ramp up a year or two before the peak.
Some scientists expect the next peak to bring more severe events than other recent peaks.
A catastrophic failure of commercial and government infrastructure in space and on the ground could be mitigated through raising public awareness, improving vulnerable infrastructure and developing advanced forecasting capabilities, Without preventive actions or plans, the trend of increased dependency on modern space-weather sensitive assets could make society extra vulnerable in the future.
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