Most people are as a rule wagering on solid teams that can pass, teams with capable QB, when putting money on football.
Does it really have a positive impact on game result, or are most folks wrong again?
I'm gonna start very wide with this, first taking a look at all teams which have averaged more passing yards than their current opponent.
It comes down to 49,1% win vs spread.
Aha, so they are not right,one might say. I don't think they are mistaken on which team should win the game. Since these squads are favs more times than underdogs. Casual wagerers don't know mathematics of capping. One should regularly compare squads vs spread, and not only vs. another squad. According to my info 70% casual handicappers put money on favs.
Now what happens if superior passing team is by at least 50 yards better on avg. It is even worse - they are 48,8 against the spread. You would come to same results if you take a look at teams attacking and defensive passing yardage. Those which pass more than they allow passing yards, are not doing well too .
And what if we mix those two factors together? The results follow.
1. Team has bigger offensive yardage that defensive and passes more yards the their opponent - 48,4% on a very big sample.
2. Same as above, yet with minimum 50 yards more this time - 46,7 % ATS.
So there is the moral: don't trust much in passing capability, it makes the line move. Solid passing teams obviously get too much respect from the crowd.
And how about above average defensive lineups that do not concede numerous passes? Hm, i think we might be on something. Teams allowing less passing yards than opponent are 50,8%. Looks like we are right on cue here. What have we learned?
Amateur bettors like to wager on teams with quarterbacks making passing plays. It looks good, and helps casual cappers believe they put money on sure thing, when they should wager the opposite.
Author Resource:
Tom P. is football expert, on Toples Totals, which provides expert picks , and free college football picks.
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