When you look at the recent "recession," you'll notice no real starting point. It just sort of happened and slowly citizens began to realize it was upon them. The same is likely should the economic crisis get worse. when, exactly, does a recession become a depression and if does a depression become a meltdown.
That means your tribe might need to come to a consensus about as soon as to act. And you could have to figure out how to get along without certain skills if everyone isn't willing to take action. In a cataclysm, there's no question about as soon as, and it is hoped you have practiced the "how."
One of the symptoms is that it is worldwide. While China has a huge economic engine, it's not influential enough to sustain the world economy.
as soon as the United States or Europe stop spending money, Chinese industry goes belly-up. And if that happens, chaos ensues. Not that the chaos halfway around the globe might of impact the Western world that much on a survivalist basis (other than Australia, perhaps), but its economic downfall would reverberate through the resource industries, which are one of our mainstays.
Another is that various governments no longer have the money to pay the emergency service workers. Washington (and the various European heads of state) is in such a bad shape that they can't respond rapidly enough to keep them employed. No cops equal any crime control. With a high percentage (and the lesser qualified workers, in general) out of work, crime begins to run rampant. The have-nots start taking from the haves.
As soon as you've been preparing for 2012, then you're one of the haves. The biggest problems, of course, are in the cities, where there is no fallback. In the rural, agricultural areas, people are more likely to have access to food, and skills, so they can survive a deeper depression. Before long, however, gangs from the cities figure that out and head for the countryside.
This lawlessness is compounded by the slow response of Washington, which turns up the printing presses to bail out cities and states. Inflation, which already will be accelerating to accommodate the huge give-away of 2009-11, will get significantly worse, making the wages of those who still have jobs worth less and further eroding what little confidence is left in government.
One area that will be hit hard by rioting and protests - lawlessness in general - is transportation. That problem will exacerbate further the turmoil of the cities. Trucks delivering food, gasoline and other supplies will be delayed - and frequently hijacked - forcing the have-nots into further preying on the haves.
It won't take much time to see significant deterioration of civilization in pockets around the country, starting on the East Coast and migrating first to the Rust Belt and then the urban centers of the West Coast.
For the "tribes" wanting to survive, it will be necessary in this scenario to escape as far as possible from these pockets of malaise. The early months will require living off of stored rations, though it may be possible to plant gardens, raise small livestock and harvest some wildlife (and cattle.)
Bug out sites will need to be armed camps and firepower will be critical. Larger-caliber semi-automatics would be ideal for this, but will necessitate accurate, controlled shooting - there's not supply chopper bringing in more ammo.
For this scenario, patience will be needed to develop a siege lifestyle for the long term.
Will the meltdown abate? Since we've never been here before, we don't know the point of no return. The best analogy is the fall of Rome that led to the Dark Ages. "Warlords" will arise and a much less technological community will stabilize out of the chaos. The difference is that those who know what they need to continue eventually will be able to stage strategic foraging expedition into the cities and elsewhere to stock up on certain supplies.
But as far as today's lifestyle is concerned, the barbarians will be at the gates.
Author Resource:
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